Introduction to Craps and Expected Value
Craps is a dynamic and social game found in casinos worldwide, and it stands out due to its fast-paced action and multiple betting options. Understanding the expected value (EV) of different bet types can be essential for developing an effective betting strategy. EV is a statistical concept that defines the average outcome of a bet based on probabilities and payouts.
Understanding Expected Value in Gambling
The concept of expected value applies not only in Craps but in many gambling scenarios. It’s calculated by multiplying the probability of an event occurring by the payoff of that event. The formula is as follows:
- EV = (Probability of Winning x Payout) – (Probability of Losing x Amount Bet)
This calculation helps players determine whether a bet offers value over time.
Overview of Bet Types in Craps
Craps features various betting options, each with its own expected value and strategy implications. Common bet types include:
- Pass Line Bet
- Don’t Pass Bet
- Come Bet
- Don’t Come Bet
- Place Bet
- Field Bet
- Big 6 and Big 8 Bets
Expected Value of the Pass Line Bet
The Pass Line Bet is one of the most popular bets in Craps. It has an expected value of approximately -1.41%, making it one of the better bets available. This means that, on average, players can expect to lose 1.41% of their wagers over time. The bet pays even money on a win, which is standard in gambling.
Expected Value of the Don’t Pass Bet
In contrast to the Pass Line, the Don’t Pass Bet has a slightly better expected value of about -1.36%. This bet is a wager that the shooter will lose, offering a slightly more favorable edge for players. While this bet is less popular due to its anti-social nature, it can be beneficial for discerning players to consider.
Expected Value of Come and Don’t Come Bets
Come Bets and Don’t Come Bets operate on the same principles as the Pass Line and Don’t Pass Bets, respectively. Both bets have nearly identical expected values as their counterparts, with Come Bets at -1.41% and Don’t Come Bets slightly better at -1.36%. These bets add an engaging twist to betting after the point has been established.
Expected Value of Place Bets
Place Bets allow players to wager on specific numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10). The expected value varies by the number chosen:
- 4 and 10: -2.44%
- 5 and 9: -4%
- 6 and 8: -1.52%
Among these, the best option for Place Bets is on the 6 and 8 due to their lower house edge.
Expected Value of Field Bets
Field Bets are another popular option in Craps, with an expected value of around -2.78%. This bet pays double on 2 and 12 but is often seen as a riskier option due to the high house edge.
Expected Value of Big 6 and Big 8 Bets
Big 6 and Big 8 Bets both have an expected value of -9.09%. Despite appearing attractive, these bets offer the worst value among common wagers in Craps and should generally be avoided to maximize your betting efficiency.
Conclusion: Choosing Your Bets Wisely
Understanding the expected values of various bet types in Craps is crucial for developing a sound betting strategy. By focusing on bets like the Pass Line, Don’t Pass, and smart Place Bets, players can enhance their chances of success at the Craps table. Always be aware of the house edge and choose bets that offer the best expected value to improve your overall gaming experience.
Additional Resources
For further reading on Craps strategy and expected value, consult these authoritative sources: