Written by Jason Dewey for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
New Zealand vs Sri Lanka | Wednesday 30 November | Christchurch | 23:30
After a tough couple of games, Sri Lanka suffered another disappointing batting collapse, going down in their second straight defeat to New Zealand in Christchurch on Boxing Day. Now, the spotlight turns to the must-win third ODI in Nelson. Angelo Matthews and his squad are desperate to revive their fortunes if they hope to salvage the series.
Will Sri Lanka manage to overcome their batting woes, or will Kane Williamson and his team extend their dominance and pile on more trouble for the islanders?
Match Winner Odds
New Zealand 2/9
Draw 35/1
Sri Lanka 33/10
New Zealand
New Zealand have clearly been the dominant force in this series so far, cruising to victory in both matches. Their last performance was especially impressive; after losing the toss and being put into the field, Matt Henry and Mitchell McClenaghan dismantled the Sri Lankan batting line-up, reducing them to 81-6. The disciplined bowling unit dismissed the visitors for just 117 runs in 28 overs, a feat made even more remarkable considering this was achieved without three frontline bowlers: Trent Boult, Tim Southee, and Adam Milne.
The highlight of the series so far was Martin Guptill’s explosive batting at Hagley Oval, where he smashed 93 runs off only 30 balls. His nine fours and eight sixes almost had him chasing AB de Villiers’ world record 31-ball century. This New Zealand squad, fresh off a memorable World Cup run, are in fine form and look set to continue their march forward in 2016 and beyond.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka have certainly been struggling. They’re adapting to unfamiliar conditions, and missing their premium fast bowler for the rest of the series isn’t helping. The retirements of stalwarts Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene have left a void, and their once solid batting order’s stability is sorely missed. Even the evergreen Tillakaratne Dilshan has failed to hold the innings together, and the team seems short on options to fix their batting troubles.
Reintroducing Ajantha Mendis could be a gamble worth taking. His variations bring an attacking edge, though his economy rate has sometimes been costly. The flashes of brilliance he once showed are rarer now, but with the series on the line, Sri Lankan management may have no choice but to take the risk.
Captain Angelo Matthews must also find form; his 17 runs in two innings and expensive bowling haven’t inspired confidence. It’s time for him to lead from the front or risk losing his spot in the side.
Verdict: Back Brendon McCullum as Top NZ Batsman at 3/1
New Zealand are favourites to win comfortably, but with odds at 2/9, there’s little value there. Instead, bet on the aggressive Brendon McCullum to top-score against a struggling Sri Lankan bowling attack on Wednesday night. Expect him to be fired up and take control early in the game.
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