Can Branden Grace go two from two on the European Tour with success at the DP World Championship after winning last week’s Nedbank Golf Challenge?
The inaugural DP World Tour Championship kicked off in 2009, marking a fresh approach for the European Tour as they embraced a successful format similar to the FedEx Cup. While there’s still room to polish the year-end events, the excitement is definitely building up.
Unfortunately, a number of the leading contenders opted out of visiting South Africa, which dampened the intense pressure this tournament aims to boost. However, the crème de la crème – the top 60 players – will challenge themselves at the Earth Course in Dubai, promising a thrilling climax to the European season, especially with Justin Rose adding his flair.
DP World Championship | 16 November – 19 November | Jumeirah Golf Estate, Dubai
Designed by Greg Norman, the Earth Course stands as a true test, stretching a hefty 7,831 yards over 18 holes with a par of 72. The dazzling white bunkers and fast run-off areas provide a vibe reminiscent of Augusta, but don’t be fooled; this course is much more forgiving. With generous fairways and expansive, shifting greens, it favours players with long drives. Among past champions, only last year’s winner Matthew Fitzpatrick ranked outside the top eight for driving distance during the tournament.
Justin Rose’s recent back-to-back wins have injected fresh intrigue, challenging the dominance of Race to Dubai leader Tommy Fleetwood. Rose could snatch the Race to Dubai title with a sixth-place finish ahead of Fleetwood. Although Spanish stars Sergio Garcia and Jon Rahm, alongside English golfers Ross Fisher and Tyrell Hatton, still hold slim chances mathematically, they’d require an extraordinary chain of events to catch up.
Past Winners
2016: Matthew Fitzpatrick (-17)
2015: Rory McIlroy (-21)
2014: Henrik Stenson (-16)
2013: Henrik Stenson (-25)
2012: Rory McIlroy
To Win Outright
Justin Rose 6/1 | Sergio Garcia 12/1 | Jon Rahm 12/1 | Branden Grace 14/1 | Tyrell Hatton 16/1
Value Bets
Victor Dubuisson – To Win 20/1, To Place 44/10
Victor Dubuisson impressed last week and looks fired up for this event. His powerful drives suit the desert conditions, and with a solid tie for third in Sun City plus a win at the Turkish Airlines Open last season, he’s definitely one to watch. His course form here is strong, enhancing his chances among tough competition.
Thomas Pieters – To Win 55/1, To Place 12/1
Pieters is a long-hitter perfect for this course, with multiple top finishes this year including fourth at the Masters and second at the Genesis Open. He also has a solid track record in desert events, narrowly missing out in Abu Dhabi. Though his recent form has been a bit shaky, he hinted at a comeback with an 11th place in Turkey, offering great value at these odds.
Paul Dunne – To Win 70/1, To Place 15/1
Paul Dunne is my sleeper pick. After a thrilling victory at the British Masters and consistent performances with five cuts made in a row, he is a steady contender. A T7 at the Alfred Dunhill Links and a top 30 finish in Sun City add to his credentials, making him an appealing bet in the place markets.
The Man to Beat – Branden Grace – To Win 14/1, To Place 3/1
Branden Grace surged back to form last week, clinching the Nedbank Golf Challenge in remarkable fashion. With a history of strong showings in majors and desert conditions — including two Qatar Masters titles — Grace is well-prepared to tackle Dubai. He finished sixth on his debut here in 2012 and third two years ago. With the pressure mounting on Hatton and Rose in the Race to Dubai, Grace could ride a wave of momentum to a back-to-back win.
