Star Pollster Says Prediction Markets Don’t Threaten Political Polling

prediction markets don’t threaten traditional polls

Trafalgar Group’s Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly says top polls are used by prediction market investors

At least one top pollster doesn’t view prediction markets as a threat to the high-quality firms in his industry. Rather, Trafalgar Group Chief Pollster Robert Cahaly believes there are synergies between elite polling and prediction markets.

In a Wednesday interview on the Newsmax show “Finnerty,” the pollster noted professional participants in prediction markets use reliable polling information, including Trafalgar data, to make informed decisions. The reasoning is simple. Hedge funds and other professional investors engaging with prediction are putting client money and their firms’ reputations on the line with each wager on Kalshi and the like.

Politics and Prediction Markets

Political pundits and investors have increasingly turned to derivative contract markets as avenues for handicapping election results — a theme that gained momentum during the 2024 presidential election cycle. Donald Trump Jr. famously said that on election night, he was monitoring Kalshi — not mainstream media outlets — to gain clues about his father’s pending victory.

New Group of Most Accurate Pollsters Formed

Cahaly joined Newsmax to discuss the newly formed National Association of Independent Pollsters, a group comprised of the most accurate pollsters. Currently, that consortium is comprised of Big Data Poll, InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar Group, and Rasmussen Reports, all of which are considered right-leaning. However, political affiliation isn’t relevant in the invitation-only group. Rather, the point of emphasis is “a cumulative record of public polling with a high degree of accuracy/low error rate.”

We don’t need to set any standards given that anyone who is a member or future member of this organization has already established that they are among the most accurate pollsters in America,” said Richard Baris of Big Data Poll and the chairman of the group, in a press release.

Reliable Political Polling Matters to Prediction Markets Users

Cahaly told Newsmax that professional traders on prediction markets are using data from the quartet of firms in the National Association of Independent Pollsters to place political wagers. Reliable polling is crucial for investors and users of these platforms.

Currently, sports event contracts account for the bulk of the volume on prediction markets, but the platforms remain favorites of bettors and investors looking to profit from elections. That much was obvious during the late June Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Kalshi showed Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani cruising to victory in advance of the votes being counted.

With capital inflows and volume increasing across prediction markets, something that’s likely to occur in 2026 because it’s a mid-term election year, professional market participants are likely to continue leaning on quality polling, indicating there’s a prediction markets niche for the National Association of Independent Pollsters.

Prediction Markets: A New Frontier

With money on the line, accuracy is paramount, and that’s something some investors and voters believe they’re not getting from traditional polling. In the Newsmax interview, Cahaly didn’t bash specific polling firms, but he noted some college-run and mainstream media polls are flawed.

Prime examples include a New York Times/Siena poll released just days before the 2016 election showing Hillary Clinton leading with a 17-point margin, and a 2024 Des Moines Register poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris winning Iowa — a state Trump won by 13 points.

The Future of Election Forecasts

As prediction markets continue to grow in popularity, it will be interesting to see how they evolve and become more integrated with traditional polling methods. One thing is certain: reliable political polling matters for investors and users of these platforms.

Conclusion

By bringing together the most accurate pollsters in the industry, the National Association of Independent Pollsters aims to provide a more comprehensive understanding of election outcomes. With the rise of prediction markets, it’s clear that there is still a place for high-quality polling in the world of politics.